* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/13/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 30 28 23 20 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 32 34 34 33 31 25 23 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 28 27 26 24 22 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 17 18 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 42 38 35 42 33 34 35 36 30 34 21 25 18 22 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 1 0 -1 -3 -5 3 -2 -7 -1 -3 -7 -4 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 273 267 251 250 250 251 253 237 246 253 260 266 301 277 297 275 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.1 25.6 24.8 24.3 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.1 24.8 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 148 140 137 125 111 105 101 103 101 100 102 104 103 102 98 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -53.2 -53.3 -54.0 -53.3 -54.5 -55.5 -56.4 -56.4 -56.5 -56.0 -55.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 6 4 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 3 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 56 62 66 66 67 66 60 49 47 47 53 48 43 37 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 7 8 6 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -33 -43 -22 -24 -23 8 46 27 12 6 22 22 29 1 -2 -21 200 MB DIV 83 72 48 49 69 40 66 36 28 6 22 0 13 -22 20 -1 -10 700-850 TADV 12 14 14 17 7 6 12 4 -2 0 -2 -1 -7 0 -10 -1 0 LAND (KM) -28 48 128 230 323 367 393 529 790 1076 1265 1348 1381 1303 1156 996 927 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.9 31.8 32.5 32.9 32.9 32.3 32.0 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.0 80.3 79.6 78.7 77.8 76.4 74.2 71.4 67.8 64.5 61.9 60.8 60.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 8 9 11 14 14 14 8 3 4 7 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 42 65 40 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 4. -3. -9. -15. -20. -22. -24. -28. -30. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -5. -9. -9. -13. -15. -16. -14. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.6 81.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/13/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/13/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/13/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 31 32 34 34 33 31 25 23 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 29 28 26 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 24 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT