* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 33 31 28 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 28 30 31 31 33 32 28 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 27 25 23 21 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 47 40 41 41 38 43 26 34 29 37 41 40 27 25 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -2 3 1 0 -3 0 -5 1 -2 -6 1 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 295 297 300 285 279 266 258 263 263 253 222 220 225 212 242 238 229 SST (C) 30.3 29.3 28.3 28.9 28.1 27.4 26.1 25.1 24.8 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.2 21.7 21.6 20.0 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 172 157 141 151 138 128 113 105 104 98 96 94 90 89 90 85 79 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 53 57 59 60 61 63 67 66 51 49 45 47 45 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 3 6 6 7 10 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -32 -59 -47 -43 -59 -38 -46 -2 56 75 106 108 79 42 -18 -67 200 MB DIV 54 49 37 62 73 17 68 -13 61 27 44 34 26 -10 15 0 -7 700-850 TADV 9 14 17 30 17 4 5 10 17 10 1 -20 -31 -21 -29 -20 -41 LAND (KM) 13 -72 8 137 257 405 383 307 365 549 737 806 925 949 899 1093 1537 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.4 30.2 31.2 32.5 33.5 34.7 35.9 36.9 37.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.8 81.7 80.6 79.4 78.2 76.7 75.5 74.6 72.7 69.8 65.8 61.7 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 9 8 6 9 11 16 17 18 17 21 24 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 35 15 33 75 21 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -27. -31. -34. -32. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. -11. -13. -14. -12. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.5 82.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/12/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/12/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 28 30 31 31 33 32 28 25 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 30 31 31 33 32 28 25 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 24 26 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT