* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 27 29 26 24 20 20 24 24 23 36 48 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 26 29 29 31 28 26 22 22 26 25 25 38 50 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 22 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 37 46 44 46 47 38 39 28 23 27 39 39 31 20 25 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 2 -4 4 0 -5 2 -2 -1 -1 2 13 3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 313 296 296 294 285 272 258 269 249 254 223 234 199 181 154 188 178 SST (C) 29.9 30.3 29.1 28.2 28.9 27.8 26.6 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.5 22.5 23.6 16.9 7.7 5.4 6.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 172 154 140 151 133 118 109 104 101 98 93 100 77 68 66 66 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.6 0.2 0.4 2.9 4.0 3.9 2.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 6 4 5 4 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 57 59 62 63 63 66 68 57 45 34 31 37 42 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 6 6 8 7 11 11 12 12 12 16 18 18 22 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 6 2 -27 -58 -46 -68 -41 -77 -15 23 70 70 73 102 92 69 83 200 MB DIV 48 70 52 49 53 27 79 25 43 40 107 20 3 32 5 22 17 700-850 TADV 20 12 9 20 32 -1 12 3 15 10 19 9 -15 14 -1 1 -28 LAND (KM) 139 13 -79 7 132 350 389 359 338 457 771 834 831 561 191 113 28 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.9 30.9 31.8 32.9 33.9 35.1 36.4 38.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.9 82.8 81.6 80.6 79.4 77.4 75.9 75.0 73.6 71.2 67.2 62.5 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 9 7 7 9 14 19 21 23 26 24 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 24 35 16 31 74 17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 21. 30. 40. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. -4. -11. -17. -22. -26. -30. -36. -39. -36. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. -1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 7. 8. 8. 12. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 9. 6. 4. 0. -0. 4. 4. 3. 16. 28. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.9 83.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/11/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/11/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 26 29 29 31 28 26 22 22 26 25 25 38 50 62 18HR AGO 20 19 20 24 27 27 29 26 24 20 20 24 23 23 36 48 60 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 23 23 25 22 20 16 16 20 19 19 32 44 56 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT