* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 27 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 20 23 27 29 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 21 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 45 38 45 43 46 44 45 33 34 30 36 37 38 23 31 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 6 3 2 -1 0 -6 2 -5 0 0 -10 -2 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 313 313 300 296 293 283 270 265 269 264 248 220 212 230 252 269 289 SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.2 28.2 28.9 28.0 27.0 25.9 25.0 24.8 23.7 23.6 22.4 22.4 22.3 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 171 172 140 150 136 123 111 104 104 98 98 91 90 88 87 86 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -54.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.2 -54.5 -55.2 -56.5 -57.1 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 52 55 62 62 60 62 66 66 51 44 42 44 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 0 -37 -71 -65 -68 -60 -66 -21 33 69 85 30 -6 -51 -90 200 MB DIV 14 37 71 50 55 66 32 61 -20 43 24 61 14 -3 -14 -11 -67 700-850 TADV 9 20 18 12 22 19 9 -3 10 9 9 7 3 -7 -1 1 7 LAND (KM) 235 98 -10 -33 75 316 435 399 318 379 554 807 952 1119 1232 1238 1208 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.2 27.8 28.2 28.6 29.5 30.3 31.3 32.5 33.4 34.5 35.2 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.7 83.6 82.3 81.0 79.9 77.6 76.1 75.1 74.4 72.6 69.8 65.8 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 11 11 9 7 6 8 10 16 17 17 14 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 24 39 26 61 19 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 5. -5. -14. -21. -27. -30. -34. -41. -44. -44. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 0. -4. -10. -13. -14. -15. -17. -16. -14. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.4 84.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/11/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 20 23 27 29 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 18 21 25 27 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT