* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SARA AL192024 11/17/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 12 10 5 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 2 26 5 328 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 148 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 63 64 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 49 45 50 55 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 47 44 57 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -2 2 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 38 -43 -131 -86 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.6 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.7 89.5 90.5 91.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 40 32 8 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 87.9
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 SARA 11/17/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 16.4% 10.5% 7.6% 5.4% 11.8% 13.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 6.5% 26.1% 13.3% 7.8% 5.6% 16.6% 26.1% 999.0%
Bayesian: 1.7% 13.8% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 1.7% 999.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 18.8% 8.9% 5.3% 3.7% 10.0% 13.6% 999.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.8% 9.4% 4.4% 2.6% 1.8% 5.0% 6.8% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 SARA 11/17/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 SARA 11/17/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT