* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SARA AL192024 11/16/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 46 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 35 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 40 33 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 8 10 12 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 321 322 323 326 343 334 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 154 157 156 154 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 6 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 71 70 67 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 57 63 66 48 61 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 86 84 56 62 56 17 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 28 45 58 73 53 -86 -62 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.1 18.2 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.3 86.6 86.9 87.3 87.8 89.1 90.9 92.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 41 42 42 41 25 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.1 86.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 SARA 11/16/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 25.0% 12.0% 8.4% 6.1% 12.9% 15.8% 30.8% Logistic: 2.5% 14.9% 5.3% 1.3% 0.7% 4.1% 11.9% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 2.4% Consensus: 2.1% 14.3% 5.9% 3.2% 2.3% 5.8% 9.6% 16.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 8.1% 3.4% 2.1% 1.1% 2.9% 4.8% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 SARA 11/16/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 SARA 11/16/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 44 35 29 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 33 27 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 29 23 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 22 16 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT