* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SARA AL192024 11/15/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 60 64 64 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 60 64 45 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 53 56 60 45 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 8 10 11 9 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 7 344 331 335 336 3 357 333 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 152 157 156 154 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 6 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 76 72 68 63 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 14 12 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 63 65 64 66 70 51 71 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 118 102 86 99 61 53 8 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 13 30 34 46 57 64 -96 -55 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.1 18.3 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.4 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.7 89.2 90.9 92.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 6 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 41 41 42 42 42 22 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 19. 20. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 86.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 SARA 11/15/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.59 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.55 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 45.3% 29.9% 14.4% 7.4% 29.1% 31.8% 45.8% Logistic: 8.0% 30.4% 12.5% 4.3% 2.1% 8.5% 22.6% 25.2% Bayesian: 5.7% 32.0% 6.8% 4.4% 4.8% 8.5% 10.3% 5.8% Consensus: 6.5% 35.9% 16.4% 7.7% 4.8% 15.3% 21.6% 25.6% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.2% 22.9% 10.7% 6.3% 2.9% 8.1% 10.8% 12.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 SARA 11/15/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 SARA 11/15/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 60 64 45 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 59 40 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 52 33 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT