* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SARA AL192024 11/15/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 54 59 63 67 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 56 60 65 69 55 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 54 60 65 55 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 2 9 11 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -5 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 354 3 4 280 316 320 28 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 158 158 157 158 157 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 79 79 71 67 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 86 74 70 66 58 71 58 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 71 82 108 93 64 63 53 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -7 11 10 17 33 58 65 -46 -145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.0 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.4 85.9 86.1 86.4 86.9 87.6 88.7 90.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 2 2 3 4 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 39 40 40 41 42 42 35 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 84.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192024 SARA 11/15/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 52.1% 35.3% 22.0% 7.9% 32.4% 33.0% 55.6% Logistic: 27.8% 63.8% 41.5% 25.0% 17.4% 32.7% 43.8% 56.4% Bayesian: 10.5% 49.1% 16.1% 11.2% 8.5% 15.3% 9.6% 28.5% Consensus: 14.9% 55.0% 31.0% 19.4% 11.3% 26.8% 28.8% 46.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.4% 31.0% 17.0% 11.2% 6.1% 13.9% 14.4% 23.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192024 SARA 11/15/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192024 SARA 11/15/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 51 56 60 65 69 55 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 53 58 62 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 45 50 54 40 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 39 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT