* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/10/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 16 16 13 5 15 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 8 8 4 6 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 267 252 268 279 209 162 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 135 135 135 137 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 36 33 31 29 28 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -28 -34 -24 -23 -15 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 20 18 11 -20 0 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 -6 -4 0 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 333 320 343 370 410 347 382 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.8 24.8 23.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.0 91.7 91.4 91.0 90.7 91.0 91.9 93.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 9 11 16 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.2 92.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.12 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 1.5% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT