* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/10/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 25 23 22 21 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 15 14 14 5 10 24 27 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 11 10 9 3 9 5 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 281 278 257 263 283 129 165 215 242 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 134 135 135 138 139 140 138 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 38 34 32 28 33 36 46 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -24 -31 -37 -28 -30 -7 -6 3 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 30 19 17 4 -6 -5 28 5 0 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 -6 -5 0 -3 3 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 362 345 327 345 364 438 329 334 329 241 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.9 24.9 23.5 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.7 91.7 91.5 91.4 91.5 92.1 93.1 94.2 95.0 95.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 3 6 7 6 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 9 10 17 19 18 18 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.0 91.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.28 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.29 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 5.8% 3.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% 1.0% .6% .4% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 25 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 31 30 29 29 29 27 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 25 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 23 23 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT