* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 32 30 30 31 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 32 30 30 31 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 31 29 27 25 25 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 21 15 14 10 3 17 26 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 8 11 10 2 9 6 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 269 282 280 263 288 102 135 185 227 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 133 134 136 135 140 141 138 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 6 6 7 6 8 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 40 37 34 29 28 35 41 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 11 11 8 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -12 -19 -29 -37 -28 -15 -6 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 38 29 25 15 -24 -13 22 7 -20 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 6 6 -5 -1 -2 1 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 403 386 371 358 346 431 372 305 339 233 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.3 24.0 22.8 21.9 21.3 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.7 91.9 92.1 91.9 91.6 91.5 92.0 92.6 94.0 94.8 95.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 1 2 2 5 7 7 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 9 9 15 20 18 17 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -11. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.6 91.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.30 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.39 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.38 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% 1.0% .6% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 35 33 32 30 30 31 29 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 35 34 32 32 33 31 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 31 31 32 30 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 27 28 26 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT