* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/09/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 37 35 32 30 31 31 31 29 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 37 35 32 30 31 31 31 29 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 36 33 30 28 27 28 28 27 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 20 24 21 13 13 0 8 22 22 24 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 6 8 11 9 10 8 3 0 0 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 247 272 286 286 267 266 112 136 205 215 223 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 132 131 134 134 138 140 141 142 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 6 7 7 7 6 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 42 41 41 37 32 29 34 37 49 53 55 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 6 5 4 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -8 -11 -13 -22 -24 -19 -8 -8 7 3 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 27 25 22 21 -8 -32 16 19 -8 0 -24 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 5 7 6 -4 1 -3 5 0 0 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 420 410 408 406 408 411 328 348 272 150 27 -100 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 24.4 22.9 22.1 21.1 20.0 19.0 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.8 92.0 92.1 92.2 91.9 92.0 92.8 93.5 94.2 94.8 95.6 96.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 0 3 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 12 12 13 21 19 18 15 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -26. -26. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -14. -14. -14. -15. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.3 91.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.56 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 6.1% 3.8% 3.3% 2.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% 1.0% .6% .5% .3% 1.0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 40 37 35 32 30 31 31 31 29 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 39 37 34 32 33 33 33 31 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 33 31 32 32 32 30 33 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 28 29 29 29 27 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT