* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/09/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 42 40 38 37 37 39 40 39 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 42 40 38 37 37 39 40 39 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 42 40 38 35 32 31 32 33 32 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 19 23 19 7 2 6 12 25 25 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 5 9 10 11 7 8 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 248 258 279 288 241 277 147 112 174 197 209 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 131 129 128 129 131 134 137 142 142 142 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.5 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 7 6 8 6 8 5 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 43 42 41 35 31 30 33 42 50 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -17 -10 -4 -11 -19 -25 -14 -18 -10 -1 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 8 27 37 31 19 -8 -7 16 -9 -18 -20 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 7 7 -6 0 -5 0 5 0 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 445 437 429 424 420 462 440 368 313 303 235 139 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.2 24.5 23.6 22.8 21.7 20.6 19.9 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.5 91.9 92.1 92.3 92.3 92.4 92.6 92.7 93.2 94.2 94.8 94.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 1 2 4 5 5 7 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 14 13 17 21 21 19 17 13 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -10. -11. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.1 91.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.39 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.52 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.65 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 4.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% .7% .4% .4% .3% 1.0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 44 42 40 38 37 37 39 40 39 39 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 46 44 42 40 39 39 41 42 41 41 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 42 40 39 39 41 42 41 41 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 36 35 35 37 38 37 37 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT