* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/09/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 45 43 41 39 36 36 38 41 41 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 48 45 43 41 39 36 36 38 41 41 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 45 40 37 35 32 29 28 28 29 30 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 13 19 23 12 7 1 6 18 21 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 6 6 11 10 10 8 7 6 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 265 253 257 273 294 266 139 84 125 184 203 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 130 131 128 129 131 133 139 140 140 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 45 43 42 38 34 30 32 31 33 34 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 17 16 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -8 -9 -5 -19 -20 -19 -7 -11 -15 -17 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 0 20 24 14 23 10 5 -8 11 -16 -23 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 2 8 5 -6 0 -3 3 -1 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 408 426 448 442 421 434 435 387 307 286 307 298 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.4 24.6 24.0 22.7 22.0 21.8 21.1 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.0 91.5 91.8 92.0 92.1 92.1 92.3 92.7 92.9 93.2 93.8 94.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 5 3 3 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 16 14 15 21 21 19 18 17 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -10. -6. -5. -4. -4. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -24. -27. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -19. -17. -14. -14. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.9 90.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.18 0.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.46 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.78 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% .5% .4% .1% 0% .9% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 48 45 43 41 39 36 36 38 41 41 42 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 49 47 45 42 42 44 47 47 48 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 45 42 42 44 47 47 48 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 38 38 40 43 43 44 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT