* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/09/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 56 54 52 48 43 40 40 44 45 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 58 56 54 52 48 43 40 40 44 45 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 56 52 49 46 42 38 34 33 34 35 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 13 20 21 12 6 3 6 19 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 2 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 261 263 253 257 275 259 272 193 89 166 195 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 127 130 130 129 131 131 135 135 137 140 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 5 7 6 8 7 8 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 47 43 42 35 32 27 27 26 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 18 16 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -5 -8 -7 -17 -24 -16 -7 -16 -19 -24 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -9 -4 20 24 3 13 0 -7 -1 -30 -26 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 1 3 9 -4 0 -7 1 -4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 398 426 442 431 403 424 392 317 298 283 281 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.6 25.4 24.3 23.3 22.9 22.7 22.1 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.7 90.3 90.8 91.1 91.5 91.7 91.7 91.8 92.2 92.4 92.4 92.8 93.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 0 3 6 4 2 2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 16 16 13 15 21 20 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -8. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -22. -26. -27. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -22. -25. -25. -21. -20. -18. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.7 89.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 0.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 530.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.17 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 3.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% .6% .4% .3% .1% .8% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/09/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 58 56 54 52 48 43 40 40 44 45 47 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 60 58 54 49 46 46 50 51 53 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 53 48 45 45 49 50 52 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 49 44 41 41 45 46 48 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT