* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/08/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 81 78 76 65 56 46 41 42 46 47 48 50 51 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 81 78 76 65 56 46 41 42 46 47 48 50 51 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 84 78 74 70 63 55 48 43 42 43 45 46 47 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 15 13 15 25 17 16 9 6 10 19 21 28 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 8 7 6 9 13 13 1 1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 238 254 248 247 266 272 264 252 283 152 199 211 224 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 128 130 131 128 127 129 131 133 135 137 137 141 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -53.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 49 46 44 39 32 30 28 28 29 26 28 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 19 16 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 3 -6 -10 -11 -24 -28 -28 -22 -33 -27 -31 -34 -54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -10 -9 0 18 16 5 -19 17 -5 -7 -25 -22 -46 -55 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 0 -2 1 9 4 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 2 -3 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 385 415 449 435 406 382 386 464 401 330 315 352 368 290 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.1 24.2 23.3 22.7 22.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.4 90.1 90.8 91.2 91.7 92.2 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.2 92.4 92.8 93.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 5 4 2 1 2 4 5 4 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 18 17 13 12 12 19 22 21 20 20 19 16 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -5. -2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -19. -22. -24. -27. -28. -27. -28. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -25. -34. -44. -49. -48. -44. -43. -42. -40. -39. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.6 89.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 695.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% .9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 5( 23) 2( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 85 81 78 76 65 56 46 41 42 46 47 48 50 51 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 82 80 69 60 50 45 46 50 51 52 54 55 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 83 81 70 61 51 46 47 51 52 53 55 56 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 67 58 48 43 44 48 49 50 52 53 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 51 41 36 37 41 42 43 45 46 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 85 76 70 67 60 51 41 36 37 41 42 43 45 46 DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT