* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/08/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 93 89 86 75 61 54 45 41 40 42 43 47 51 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 95 93 89 86 75 61 54 45 41 40 42 43 47 51 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 94 90 86 81 72 63 56 50 45 44 44 45 47 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 14 14 20 21 17 15 9 6 14 16 22 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 7 9 8 9 14 10 9 4 4 0 1 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 233 233 252 256 242 273 252 275 260 189 198 225 218 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 130 128 130 132 131 132 131 131 135 137 137 140 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 5 6 4 6 5 7 6 8 6 8 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 48 48 50 47 43 30 26 21 19 19 20 22 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 22 20 17 17 15 12 10 9 7 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 11 3 -1 -2 -15 -29 -22 -25 -28 -24 -32 -18 -37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 8 0 -7 6 12 3 -7 -6 -17 -3 -10 -36 -32 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 3 -1 0 6 -12 -2 -12 -1 -2 3 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 339 365 392 424 437 413 341 348 442 347 305 298 329 324 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.2 26.0 25.1 23.8 23.0 22.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.5 89.2 89.9 90.5 91.1 91.8 92.1 91.8 90.9 91.0 91.9 92.4 92.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 3 2 3 3 6 6 2 2 4 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 20 18 18 17 14 10 12 17 22 20 20 20 18 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -23. -29. -32. -35. -37. -40. -42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -9. -10. -15. -21. -26. -28. -31. -30. -29. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -6. -9. -20. -34. -41. -50. -54. -55. -53. -52. -48. -44. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 24.5 88.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 744.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 4.2% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.7% .8% .5% .4% .3% .2% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 14( 29) 10( 36) 5( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 1( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 93 89 86 75 61 54 45 41 40 42 43 47 51 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 92 88 85 74 60 53 44 40 39 41 42 46 50 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 87 84 73 59 52 43 39 38 40 41 45 49 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 71 57 50 41 37 36 38 39 43 47 DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 65 51 44 35 31 30 32 33 37 41 DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 70 56 49 40 36 35 37 38 42 46 DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 93 84 78 74 60 53 44 40 39 41 42 46 50 DIS DIS