* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/08/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 105 101 95 84 69 57 51 44 42 44 45 49 54 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 106 105 101 95 84 69 57 51 44 42 44 45 49 54 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 105 101 95 89 77 67 59 55 52 52 54 56 58 60 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 11 13 11 21 10 6 2 4 8 9 9 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 13 8 9 11 10 11 12 11 10 8 7 7 10 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 253 256 239 252 239 266 276 255 217 236 170 245 216 215 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 130 128 131 131 132 134 135 135 140 139 141 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 7 7 9 8 9 7 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 49 47 49 46 37 32 28 25 25 29 30 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 20 20 19 16 14 13 10 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 5 7 12 6 0 -4 -8 -11 -19 -14 -35 -15 -14 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 15 12 11 2 36 15 10 -9 -12 9 22 -42 -32 -38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 3 0 1 1 3 1 -5 0 -6 0 0 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 317 326 361 391 447 483 456 440 403 397 374 263 167 93 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.2 23.6 23.2 22.4 21.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.5 89.3 90.0 90.7 91.7 92.3 92.7 92.9 93.1 93.4 93.8 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 4 3 3 5 6 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 19 19 18 20 20 19 22 21 21 20 15 12 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -22. -30. -36. -41. -43. -46. -49. -50. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -4. -0. 4. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -23. -27. -29. -31. -31. -30. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -4. -10. -21. -36. -48. -54. -61. -63. -61. -60. -56. -51. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 24.5 87.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 817.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 4.1% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% .8% .5% .4% .2% .2% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 17( 56) 9( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 2( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 105 101 95 84 69 57 51 44 42 44 45 49 54 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 99 93 82 67 55 49 42 40 42 43 47 52 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 97 91 80 65 53 47 40 38 40 41 45 50 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 89 78 63 51 45 38 36 38 39 43 48 DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 75 60 48 42 35 33 35 36 40 45 DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 81 66 54 48 41 39 41 42 46 51 DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 106 105 96 90 86 71 59 53 46 44 46 47 51 56 DIS DIS