* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/08/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 86 82 75 65 53 47 42 44 46 46 47 48 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 86 82 75 65 53 47 42 44 46 46 47 48 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 85 81 77 69 63 55 50 47 46 48 50 52 54 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 9 12 10 17 17 13 6 6 1 9 12 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 10 9 7 10 10 11 5 7 6 13 4 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 251 252 247 247 253 227 264 247 281 222 193 243 286 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 135 129 129 132 131 132 134 136 140 140 139 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 7 5 5 4 7 6 9 7 10 7 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 50 49 49 47 42 34 31 28 25 28 29 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 22 21 20 18 15 12 9 9 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 18 6 7 7 6 -1 -14 -12 -23 -6 -7 -2 0 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 17 20 15 12 10 23 12 -9 -25 -3 -15 -12 -21 -41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 1 -3 0 3 -9 1 -8 3 -3 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 342 344 344 360 386 420 461 465 448 443 406 364 303 200 77 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.2 24.9 24.2 23.2 22.4 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.5 88.4 89.1 89.9 91.0 91.9 92.4 92.8 93.1 93.5 93.9 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 3 5 5 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 24 20 20 20 18 19 18 19 22 21 20 17 13 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -27. -28. -30. -32. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. -32. -34. -35. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -25. -37. -43. -47. -46. -44. -44. -43. -42. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.7 86.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 649.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 9.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 0% 0% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/24 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/08/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 8( 28) 5( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 3( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 88 86 82 75 65 53 47 42 44 46 46 47 48 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 82 75 65 53 47 42 44 46 46 47 48 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 80 73 63 51 45 40 42 44 44 45 46 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 69 59 47 41 36 38 40 40 41 42 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 54 42 36 31 33 35 35 36 37 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 68 58 46 40 35 37 39 39 40 41 DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 88 79 73 69 59 47 41 36 38 40 40 41 42 DIS DIS