* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/07/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 86 83 75 67 55 48 42 42 43 45 47 49 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 86 83 75 67 55 48 42 42 43 45 47 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 87 83 79 71 64 57 51 48 47 48 49 50 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 9 10 11 8 12 11 17 8 10 7 12 11 14 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 9 12 11 10 9 6 11 10 7 4 6 8 8 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 273 268 268 254 262 223 253 245 252 238 226 220 233 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 139 139 137 135 128 130 132 132 132 134 138 140 144 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 7 7 9 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 49 47 44 46 43 38 32 27 23 26 32 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 22 21 20 18 14 12 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 24 17 7 6 4 1 -1 -11 -8 0 11 -12 -9 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 14 13 8 17 23 35 9 5 -4 18 3 14 -11 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -1 1 0 2 3 0 -3 -1 -5 1 0 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 339 344 343 352 385 424 450 460 443 434 396 269 129 -20 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.2 23.9 22.9 21.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.6 87.5 88.3 89.0 90.4 91.4 92.2 92.8 93.1 93.2 93.6 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 4 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 32 25 21 21 19 21 22 22 23 22 21 16 12 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -23. -27. -28. -30. -32. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -24. -28. -30. -31. -32. -33. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -23. -35. -42. -48. -48. -47. -45. -43. -41. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.6 85.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 639.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.4% 3.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.2% 3.7% 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% .6% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 9( 29) 5( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 1( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 88 86 83 75 67 55 48 42 42 43 45 47 42 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 83 75 67 55 48 42 42 43 45 47 42 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 81 73 65 53 46 40 40 41 43 45 40 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 69 61 49 42 36 36 37 39 41 36 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 63 55 43 36 30 30 31 33 35 30 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 66 58 46 39 33 33 34 36 38 33 DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 88 79 73 69 61 49 42 36 36 37 39 41 36 DIS DIS