* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/07/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 85 84 81 78 71 67 60 55 49 49 49 51 53 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 85 84 81 78 71 67 60 55 49 49 49 51 53 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 86 83 80 74 69 64 60 55 51 49 49 51 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 25 16 10 12 7 11 5 12 8 5 3 7 5 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 6 11 7 10 10 18 11 14 11 5 6 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 301 306 276 277 261 271 239 237 246 276 230 278 253 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 135 139 137 135 129 128 129 130 130 132 131 133 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 7 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 54 52 51 46 45 47 44 36 29 24 20 18 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 22 22 20 20 18 16 12 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 34 29 18 7 7 0 -2 -4 -13 -16 -5 -16 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 8 24 34 16 16 9 35 8 10 -13 -12 -22 -18 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 5 -2 -6 -2 0 -1 1 3 -2 -4 -2 -4 2 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 182 256 311 312 323 352 424 446 459 460 434 424 400 363 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.1 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.2 23.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.9 85.7 86.7 87.7 89.2 90.4 91.4 91.9 92.4 92.8 93.2 93.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 44 37 32 22 20 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -23. -26. -29. -31. -34. -37. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -19. -23. -30. -35. -41. -41. -41. -39. -37. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 23.8 84.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 9.9% 7.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.1% 2.8% 2.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 7.0% 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.4% 5.0% 4.9% 2.8% 3.1% .7% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 8( 27) 6( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 85 84 81 78 71 67 60 55 49 49 49 51 53 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 87 86 83 80 73 69 62 57 51 51 51 53 55 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 82 79 72 68 61 56 50 50 50 52 54 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 74 67 63 56 51 45 45 45 47 49 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 61 57 50 45 39 39 39 41 43 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 67 60 56 49 44 38 38 38 40 42 DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 87 85 76 70 66 59 55 48 43 37 37 37 39 41 DIS DIS