* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/07/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 85 85 84 81 76 73 67 60 59 56 52 50 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 85 85 84 81 76 73 67 60 59 56 52 50 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 88 86 84 79 74 69 64 59 55 50 47 45 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 24 14 8 11 8 9 10 15 11 4 11 10 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 6 7 8 12 15 15 8 15 4 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 285 300 311 267 284 249 282 232 263 270 316 238 253 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.9 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 150 140 139 139 137 131 127 128 129 130 130 130 132 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.4 -53.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 55 53 50 46 48 45 41 28 21 16 14 12 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 23 22 23 21 23 20 18 17 14 11 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 29 38 35 17 11 8 1 0 -1 -24 -26 -35 -42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 13 4 29 29 14 8 18 26 5 -14 -23 -20 -17 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 10 0 -5 -4 -2 0 -3 0 0 -15 -2 -9 0 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 22 101 186 247 313 311 343 386 424 446 469 441 408 388 369 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.2 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.6 88.4 89.9 90.9 91.4 91.9 92.4 92.9 93.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 50 40 39 33 19 20 20 21 22 22 21 21 22 22 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -31. -34. -37. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. -1. 1. -3. -8. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -16. -23. -30. -31. -34. -38. -40. -38. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 23.2 83.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 10.5% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 4.7% 3.9% 2.3% 2.1% .7% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 9( 28) 8( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 1( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 85 85 84 81 76 73 67 60 59 56 52 50 52 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 86 86 85 82 77 74 68 61 60 57 53 51 53 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 85 82 77 74 68 61 60 57 53 51 53 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 76 71 68 62 55 54 51 47 45 47 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 63 60 54 47 46 43 39 37 39 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 67 62 59 53 46 45 42 38 36 38 DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 85 76 70 66 61 58 52 45 44 41 37 35 37 DIS DIS