* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 101 97 95 89 85 81 74 63 54 45 43 44 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 87 93 88 86 80 76 72 65 55 46 37 34 36 38 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 92 97 98 96 90 84 80 75 69 61 53 47 46 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 24 14 12 6 11 10 16 19 14 6 13 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -1 6 5 10 9 16 15 15 8 2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 264 285 301 310 279 263 261 268 263 271 282 235 259 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.9 28.9 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 134 150 149 140 137 137 130 130 131 130 129 129 127 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -52.2 -52.9 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 6 8 7 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 57 56 53 49 48 49 47 40 30 24 20 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 21 22 22 23 23 23 20 19 14 11 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 36 28 38 30 10 0 -1 -4 -5 -14 -28 -23 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 71 0 19 48 0 18 28 18 12 2 -22 -7 -14 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 9 0 -5 -4 0 3 1 4 2 -3 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 43 -24 70 146 226 298 324 376 430 432 371 379 419 402 412 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.7 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.4 26.0 26.0 25.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.3 83.1 84.0 84.8 85.5 87.2 88.6 89.9 91.3 92.0 92.1 92.3 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 49 59 55 43 27 21 22 21 18 13 13 17 19 19 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. 0. -0. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. -41. -45. -49. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -11. -12. -9. -6. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -18. -23. -25. -27. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -19. -26. -37. -46. -55. -57. -56. -53. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 22.0 82.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 530.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 16.3% 9.9% 9.8% 4.9% 8.0% 2.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 30.5% 3.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.1% 12.2% 3.7% 3.7% 1.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.0% 6.6% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.8% .4% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 14( 33) 10( 40) 7( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 87 93 88 86 80 76 72 65 55 46 37 34 36 38 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 105 100 98 92 88 84 77 67 58 49 46 48 50 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 89 83 79 75 68 58 49 40 37 39 41 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 82 78 74 67 57 48 39 36 38 40 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 71 67 60 50 41 32 29 31 33 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 87 78 72 69 64 60 56 49 39 30 21 18 20 22 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 87 93 84 78 74 70 66 59 49 40 31 28 30 32 DIS DIS