* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 95 96 94 91 86 81 74 64 53 46 39 39 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 95 82 90 88 85 80 75 68 58 47 40 33 33 34 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 95 84 91 92 89 84 78 72 66 59 51 44 40 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 20 23 11 11 13 16 20 27 23 14 23 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 9 6 9 11 10 13 16 2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 271 261 283 299 265 268 244 272 247 270 275 280 254 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 27.5 27.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 131 135 148 143 137 136 136 128 133 132 130 129 129 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 61 58 52 51 46 46 44 41 34 27 21 17 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 21 21 22 22 21 21 18 16 14 10 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 32 33 33 29 44 15 -3 -8 -13 -20 -17 -45 -38 -40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 81 84 21 21 22 6 32 30 21 12 -6 -34 -21 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 6 0 -3 0 3 -7 4 7 -7 0 -9 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 42 -13 70 162 298 345 383 412 359 301 264 253 233 186 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.5 26.9 27.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.3 83.0 83.8 84.7 86.3 87.6 88.9 90.1 90.9 91.5 91.7 91.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 44 48 53 47 36 25 22 19 14 11 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. -34. -38. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -15. -21. -24. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. -16. -26. -37. -44. -51. -51. -50. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.0 81.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.48 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.12 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.2% 30.3% 27.3% 22.5% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.6% 21.2% 11.5% 9.2% 5.2% 10.8% 3.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 41.1% 17.7% 7.6% 9.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.3% 23.0% 15.4% 13.6% 6.4% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 15.1% 15.0% 11.7% 8.3% 4.2% 3.3% .6% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 0( 12) 11( 22) 10( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 0( 7) 1( 8) 2( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 95 82 90 88 85 80 75 68 58 47 40 33 33 34 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 76 84 82 79 74 69 62 52 41 34 27 27 28 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 94 92 89 84 79 72 62 51 44 37 37 38 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 75 70 65 58 48 37 30 23 23 24 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 63 58 51 41 30 23 16 16 17 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 95 86 80 77 74 69 64 57 47 36 29 22 22 23 DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT