* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 90 93 97 98 96 89 80 70 56 45 35 32 31 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 83 90 77 90 91 89 82 73 63 49 38 28 25 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 78 87 90 87 83 78 72 63 53 45 39 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 12 19 14 11 8 16 12 28 26 23 22 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 9 9 12 12 12 8 15 9 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 290 281 274 285 307 273 242 265 240 252 268 262 262 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.1 27.4 28.1 28.8 27.6 28.1 28.2 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 154 130 139 148 130 137 138 129 133 131 126 125 122 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -52.6 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 5 4 6 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 68 65 63 58 55 52 49 46 46 41 35 25 18 14 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 19 21 22 23 21 20 20 16 13 9 7 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 53 37 35 32 37 26 -5 -6 -14 -26 -37 -24 -50 -59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 71 84 70 8 21 6 33 26 25 18 7 -25 -36 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 2 3 -1 0 3 5 2 13 4 -1 -6 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 194 101 16 -9 108 253 354 399 401 338 253 191 167 133 92 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.1 27.0 27.7 27.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.8 82.6 83.4 84.2 85.5 86.9 88.4 90.0 91.1 91.7 91.9 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 74 69 46 55 54 36 31 23 19 13 10 9 8 7 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -8. -12. -19. -22. -25. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 14. 11. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 18. 22. 23. 21. 14. 5. -5. -19. -30. -40. -43. -44. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.2 80.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 16.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.57 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.29 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.2% 53.9% 43.7% 37.8% 24.4% 28.4% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 27.6% 43.8% 30.2% 22.4% 11.1% 21.5% 8.9% 2.6% Bayesian: 45.8% 38.1% 24.8% 38.6% 10.3% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 35.9% 45.3% 32.9% 32.9% 15.3% 17.6% 8.8% 0.9% DTOPS: 46.0% 43.0% 26.0% 18.0% 4.0% 15.0% 8.0% 0.0% SDCON: 40.9% 44.1% 29.4% 25.4% 9.6% 16.3% 8.4% .4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 12( 16) 12( 26) 12( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 2( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 83 90 77 90 91 89 82 73 63 49 38 28 25 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 81 68 81 82 80 73 64 54 40 29 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 58 71 72 70 63 54 44 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 78 79 77 70 61 51 37 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 83 74 68 65 64 62 55 46 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 75 83 90 81 75 71 69 62 53 43 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS