* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 85 91 94 96 95 90 83 72 62 48 37 31 30 30 28 V (KT) LAND 70 78 85 91 86 89 88 83 76 65 54 41 30 25 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 79 85 88 83 88 86 84 81 75 66 56 46 35 32 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 10 13 16 7 12 13 17 23 29 27 24 22 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 4 8 8 8 10 10 9 0 8 5 4 SHEAR DIR 239 261 281 262 248 286 253 265 244 256 237 264 263 271 241 241 246 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 28.9 27.1 28.5 27.3 27.6 28.3 28.2 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.2 25.9 25.9 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 151 126 144 127 130 139 138 127 127 120 112 107 108 104 99 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 5 5 3 4 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 72 69 67 64 55 52 49 46 44 42 38 29 22 22 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 16 18 19 19 19 17 15 12 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 69 50 34 35 36 43 2 -17 -28 -49 -70 -69 -106 -109 -114 -128 200 MB DIV 99 84 63 63 60 -10 29 9 30 8 15 9 -16 -23 17 32 29 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 0 2 0 -3 -1 4 3 9 16 0 2 -3 6 13 LAND (KM) 205 170 87 35 33 216 336 431 343 277 191 92 7 -14 -14 -42 -27 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.3 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.4 28.3 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.8 81.7 82.4 83.2 84.6 86.0 87.2 88.6 89.7 90.5 90.8 90.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 8 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 75 72 62 40 48 28 30 30 22 15 12 6 2 1 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -23. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 24. 26. 25. 20. 13. 2. -8. -22. -33. -39. -40. -40. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.4 79.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 18.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 8.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.47 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.38 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.7% 63.9% 50.5% 45.5% 28.4% 37.9% 27.3% 0.0% Logistic: 33.1% 61.0% 43.8% 31.8% 18.9% 28.6% 16.4% 7.0% Bayesian: 45.2% 58.0% 33.5% 44.8% 17.7% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 38.0% 61.0% 42.6% 40.7% 21.7% 24.2% 14.6% 2.3% DTOPS: 27.0% 29.0% 18.0% 16.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% SDCON: 32.5% 45.0% 30.3% 28.3% 12.8% 14.6% 9.8% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 10( 14) 10( 22) 11( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 11( 13) 5( 17) 0( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 78 85 91 86 89 88 83 76 65 54 41 30 25 26 26 27 18HR AGO 70 69 76 82 77 80 79 74 67 56 45 32 21 16 17 17 18 12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 67 70 69 64 57 46 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 58 57 52 45 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 78 85 76 70 66 65 60 53 42 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS