* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 78 81 82 82 76 69 60 49 41 31 31 32 31 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 78 77 79 79 72 65 56 45 37 27 28 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 71 74 75 77 76 74 70 62 54 45 38 35 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 15 12 10 12 16 18 31 20 21 22 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 -3 0 -1 -2 10 9 12 5 8 9 7 1 13 -3 SHEAR DIR 299 259 258 275 266 276 303 265 262 265 236 251 277 261 254 245 255 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.1 27.2 28.5 26.9 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 163 161 154 127 143 122 137 139 136 124 123 119 117 115 110 102 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 2 4 3 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 67 65 60 54 48 45 42 43 39 29 20 20 26 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 18 19 21 19 18 15 12 9 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 85 75 52 41 41 47 27 -7 -8 -34 -41 -43 -82 -84 -44 -56 200 MB DIV 78 95 94 74 60 22 19 3 53 41 35 0 -4 -22 28 8 -22 700-850 TADV 7 8 7 -1 -2 6 2 2 3 10 9 24 6 3 7 22 2 LAND (KM) 87 207 161 80 21 122 259 396 381 286 201 135 93 72 38 0 -15 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.4 24.0 24.9 25.5 25.9 26.5 27.3 27.9 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.9 80.6 81.5 82.3 83.7 84.9 86.4 87.6 88.7 89.7 90.4 90.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 11 9 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 76 75 72 64 41 35 26 31 30 20 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 2. -1. -3. -9. -14. -18. -26. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 21. 14. 5. -6. -14. -24. -24. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.6 79.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 13.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.55 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 55.5% 39.7% 26.4% 18.1% 40.9% 28.8% 20.5% Logistic: 11.6% 44.3% 25.8% 21.5% 12.2% 23.9% 18.2% 10.3% Bayesian: 9.2% 10.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% Consensus: 11.7% 36.9% 22.4% 16.3% 10.2% 22.2% 16.0% 10.3% DTOPS: 21.0% 53.0% 26.0% 18.0% 14.0% 16.0% 5.0% 1.0% SDCON: 16.3% 44.9% 24.2% 17.1% 12.1% 19.1% 10.5% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 6( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 67 73 78 77 79 79 72 65 56 45 37 27 28 28 26 18HR AGO 55 54 60 66 71 70 72 72 65 58 49 38 30 20 21 21 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 62 61 63 63 56 49 40 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 49 51 51 44 37 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT