* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 65 72 77 76 71 67 57 48 35 37 42 33 26 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 65 68 73 73 67 63 54 44 31 34 38 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 60 57 68 68 66 63 57 49 41 39 36 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 9 7 13 18 8 15 16 16 26 28 28 35 42 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 6 7 5 4 3 8 10 6 9 0 SHEAR DIR 318 311 258 262 261 249 283 255 267 253 246 225 251 261 266 262 279 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.2 27.5 27.3 28.4 28.4 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 165 161 156 140 129 126 141 140 128 126 122 117 115 113 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.9 -53.7 -54.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 3 1 0 1 1 5 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 72 68 63 56 53 48 45 45 37 27 23 24 21 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 19 20 21 20 18 18 14 10 4 8 12 6 2 850 MB ENV VOR 78 78 83 76 57 41 44 44 -9 -21 -17 -33 -77 -117 -83 -72 -113 200 MB DIV 65 79 89 80 70 48 18 37 1 37 19 -3 -21 -2 -18 -9 -31 700-850 TADV 1 9 9 8 -1 4 5 -2 4 9 15 0 -1 6 20 29 2 LAND (KM) 71 63 181 174 101 9 199 332 401 291 238 190 115 72 51 22 -18 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.2 23.1 24.5 25.3 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.4 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.2 79.0 79.7 80.5 81.4 83.0 84.4 85.6 86.8 88.1 89.3 90.1 90.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 71 75 76 72 68 50 30 25 30 23 15 12 9 5 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 1. -2. -3. -10. -17. -25. -20. -14. -21. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 27. 32. 31. 26. 22. 12. 3. -10. -8. -3. -12. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 78.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.74 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.96 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 43.9% 28.9% 16.6% 7.7% 26.8% 24.2% 22.3% Logistic: 7.2% 27.8% 12.8% 9.1% 4.7% 17.7% 21.5% 12.8% Bayesian: 7.6% 11.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.8% 2.3% 0.5% Consensus: 7.0% 27.6% 14.7% 8.9% 4.3% 15.4% 16.0% 11.9% DTOPS: 13.0% 55.0% 30.0% 16.0% 9.0% 26.0% 20.0% 3.0% SDCON: 10.0% 41.3% 22.3% 12.4% 6.6% 20.7% 18.0% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 59 65 68 73 73 67 63 54 44 31 34 38 30 25 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 60 63 68 68 62 58 49 39 26 29 33 25 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 52 55 60 60 54 50 41 31 18 21 25 17 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 44 49 49 43 39 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT