* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 67 75 79 80 75 69 62 52 41 38 36 34 32 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 67 75 73 74 70 63 56 46 35 32 30 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 57 62 71 71 72 69 65 61 53 46 40 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 4 0 4 10 18 12 13 10 12 18 28 31 39 40 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 2 0 -3 0 11 6 4 -1 4 3 8 8 10 SHEAR DIR 293 318 350 163 250 259 278 297 273 273 234 200 231 259 292 281 278 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 27.1 28.6 26.9 27.7 28.4 28.3 27.4 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 170 167 163 159 126 145 121 131 141 139 126 130 127 123 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -53.1 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 0 1 0 2 1 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 74 71 64 59 56 51 46 43 36 31 28 23 18 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 16 18 19 19 19 18 16 13 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 83 79 87 80 49 36 51 17 -14 -10 -35 -80 -94 -111 -81 -69 200 MB DIV 57 61 71 90 94 67 38 7 -5 23 15 17 -7 -12 -37 -38 -28 700-850 TADV 0 1 6 8 7 -2 6 0 4 5 12 1 1 -3 2 3 9 LAND (KM) 140 82 90 215 185 43 118 259 377 375 271 240 235 195 135 56 1 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.3 22.3 23.9 24.9 25.6 26.2 26.7 26.9 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.7 78.5 79.2 80.0 80.9 82.5 83.9 84.9 85.9 87.1 88.4 89.5 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 8 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 70 72 75 76 74 43 42 26 24 30 20 14 14 11 9 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -16. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 12. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 30. 34. 35. 30. 24. 17. 7. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 77.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.88 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.48 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.76 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 49.6% 33.6% 22.3% 9.4% 35.3% 30.6% 25.1% Logistic: 7.5% 35.8% 20.1% 15.0% 7.2% 23.1% 17.2% 12.8% Bayesian: 4.7% 10.3% 4.3% 0.9% 0.5% 4.3% 5.2% 0.8% Consensus: 6.3% 31.9% 19.3% 12.7% 5.7% 20.9% 17.7% 12.9% DTOPS: 9.0% 55.0% 25.0% 9.0% 3.0% 19.0% 8.0% 3.0% SDCON: 7.6% 43.4% 22.1% 10.8% 4.3% 19.9% 12.8% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 55 61 67 75 73 74 70 63 56 46 35 32 30 29 26 18HR AGO 45 44 49 55 61 69 67 68 64 57 50 40 29 26 24 23 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 53 61 59 60 56 49 42 32 21 18 16 15 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 49 47 48 44 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT