* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL182024 11/05/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 68 80 86 88 82 72 63 51 40 36 34 34 32 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 68 80 73 82 76 66 57 45 34 30 28 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 61 74 71 81 78 72 65 57 51 46 41 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 6 1 4 9 11 16 10 16 16 16 28 33 38 30 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 7 8 0 -4 1 5 6 14 6 SHEAR DIR 263 267 295 13 157 264 264 291 258 278 249 234 224 240 275 279 243 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.1 27.8 28.3 27.1 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 170 168 165 154 134 140 124 140 141 134 124 120 120 118 107 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -53.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 2 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 76 76 68 62 56 51 46 42 41 33 31 25 19 12 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 18 19 20 18 16 13 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 100 88 82 86 69 53 53 57 9 -6 -3 -33 -66 -61 -72 -96 200 MB DIV 89 68 80 89 102 81 67 18 33 -7 5 6 -12 -12 -21 -58 -61 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 4 7 0 0 7 0 7 6 2 -1 2 -9 -6 -18 LAND (KM) 217 124 55 75 193 114 -25 157 308 425 353 250 148 101 105 63 4 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.2 21.1 22.8 24.1 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.8 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.5 78.2 79.0 79.9 81.6 83.0 84.4 85.5 86.6 87.8 88.9 89.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 12 11 10 8 6 6 6 6 5 2 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 79 71 72 75 77 70 49 41 27 31 29 16 10 8 8 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -7. -15. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 19. 15. 9. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 28. 40. 46. 48. 42. 32. 23. 11. 0. -4. -6. -6. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 76.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 13.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 5.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 61.2% 43.2% 25.4% 14.5% 43.9% 47.0% 46.3% Logistic: 19.3% 62.4% 42.4% 33.4% 17.9% 38.8% 29.5% 21.4% Bayesian: 15.3% 63.2% 30.1% 19.3% 14.1% 46.6% 15.6% 3.0% Consensus: 14.1% 62.3% 38.6% 26.0% 15.5% 43.1% 30.7% 23.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/05/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 7( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 53 60 68 80 73 82 76 66 57 45 34 30 28 28 26 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 61 73 66 75 69 59 50 38 27 23 21 21 19 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 51 63 56 65 59 49 40 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 38 50 43 52 46 36 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT