* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182024 11/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 65 75 81 86 86 80 70 58 48 40 38 36 31 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 65 75 81 80 80 73 64 52 42 34 32 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 59 70 79 78 81 76 70 61 52 46 41 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 3 1 6 11 15 13 13 15 18 16 27 33 50 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 12 9 6 -2 4 3 5 9 SHEAR DIR 281 256 267 291 334 238 261 276 289 273 277 261 236 220 240 287 282 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.4 27.2 28.8 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 168 170 168 159 127 148 128 132 141 140 127 126 125 124 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 3 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 79 78 80 77 78 74 64 58 55 52 47 46 42 33 31 25 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 17 17 19 19 22 23 22 20 16 11 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 106 98 89 88 83 56 55 66 37 11 3 -7 -29 -70 -43 -36 200 MB DIV 91 75 66 81 103 90 82 29 49 7 20 -5 16 -18 0 -22 -42 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 3 7 2 1 5 2 5 8 11 4 4 -10 -6 -28 LAND (KM) 303 200 112 59 83 194 31 73 225 351 394 295 216 190 182 167 115 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.5 20.2 22.1 23.5 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.4 77.0 77.5 78.3 79.1 80.9 82.5 83.8 85.0 86.1 87.3 88.3 89.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 12 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 80 77 71 73 76 76 46 56 36 32 33 23 14 13 12 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 1. -6. -13. -18. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 16. 13. 8. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 25. 35. 41. 46. 46. 40. 30. 18. 8. 0. -2. -4. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 76.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 13.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 59.2% 41.6% 24.0% 10.9% 43.2% 49.5% 55.0% Logistic: 15.3% 62.7% 40.1% 30.6% 18.7% 50.0% 45.2% 42.1% Bayesian: 9.5% 60.6% 18.8% 13.2% 7.8% 42.9% 24.3% 7.2% Consensus: 10.7% 60.9% 33.5% 22.6% 12.5% 45.4% 39.7% 34.7% DTOPS: 6.0% 18.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 9.0% SDCON: 8.3% 39.4% 19.7% 12.8% 7.2% 25.2% 22.3% 21.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 5( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 52 59 65 75 81 80 80 73 64 52 42 34 32 30 25 18HR AGO 40 39 45 52 58 68 74 73 73 66 57 45 35 27 25 23 18 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 49 59 65 64 64 57 48 36 26 18 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 46 52 51 51 44 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT