* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182024 11/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 60 66 71 70 66 59 51 43 37 35 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 60 63 68 67 63 56 48 40 34 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 46 49 53 54 53 49 42 35 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 7 4 8 8 13 14 10 17 23 25 32 35 52 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 8 14 4 4 8 7 3 2 SHEAR DIR 268 236 239 257 276 190 228 249 274 251 258 253 243 224 236 266 280 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.6 27.7 28.7 26.8 28.0 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 168 170 170 163 134 147 121 135 139 130 122 118 113 105 102 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 76 74 73 67 61 53 48 47 44 41 26 24 19 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 16 20 19 21 20 19 16 12 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 109 109 107 99 87 69 49 60 55 16 -2 12 -8 -67 -91 -61 200 MB DIV 52 69 72 64 66 86 73 63 25 2 4 14 20 6 -28 -13 -34 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 1 2 3 -1 2 7 0 9 9 4 -9 -9 -10 10 LAND (KM) 329 232 143 71 57 202 17 101 259 408 326 210 136 81 46 36 -18 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.3 20.0 21.8 23.7 24.8 25.7 26.5 27.2 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.1 77.5 78.2 78.9 80.6 82.5 84.0 85.1 86.3 87.5 88.7 90.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 79 78 71 72 76 75 55 53 30 29 28 14 10 6 3 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. -2. -8. -13. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 30. 36. 41. 40. 36. 29. 21. 13. 7. 5. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 76.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.86 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.93 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 25.6% 12.2% 8.6% 5.8% 15.0% 21.2% 33.5% Logistic: 2.6% 22.8% 9.3% 5.8% 2.9% 21.1% 25.9% 33.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 7.7% 3.2% Consensus: 2.1% 16.8% 7.3% 4.9% 2.9% 12.4% 18.2% 23.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% SDCON: 1.5% 11.4% 4.6% 2.9% 1.9% 7.2% 10.6% 14.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 42 49 60 63 68 67 63 56 48 40 34 32 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 46 57 60 65 64 60 53 45 37 31 29 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 41 52 55 60 59 55 48 40 32 26 24 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 42 45 50 49 45 38 30 22 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT