* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182024 11/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 47 56 64 69 73 70 67 56 49 45 39 45 41 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 47 56 64 69 69 66 63 52 45 41 35 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 44 51 57 58 59 56 49 44 41 38 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 6 3 3 11 13 19 23 11 16 28 30 43 48 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 1 0 4 8 7 -2 0 -1 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 220 240 271 280 215 149 174 222 242 276 273 255 239 244 240 262 270 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.4 28.1 29.0 27.6 28.2 28.3 27.2 27.1 26.5 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 166 167 167 166 169 160 139 151 130 137 139 125 123 118 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 74 73 72 68 61 55 47 41 39 38 37 33 30 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 12 8 6 4 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 90 101 112 114 101 89 70 40 37 38 -6 -13 -27 -80 -99 -113 200 MB DIV 132 104 47 63 60 65 82 46 42 -21 -27 13 36 12 -2 -16 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 3 3 3 4 3 -1 2 5 3 5 8 -8 LAND (KM) 304 396 328 245 167 99 200 21 155 313 409 364 227 157 62 -72 -384 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 18.2 20.1 22.0 23.6 24.6 25.3 26.0 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.1 77.4 77.7 78.0 79.3 81.5 83.6 85.2 86.3 86.9 87.8 89.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 10 13 14 12 9 6 5 7 7 5 7 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 53 67 76 75 70 76 80 68 61 37 34 30 15 12 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 31. 32. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. -4. -10. -12. -16. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 26. 34. 39. 43. 40. 37. 26. 19. 15. 9. 15. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 76.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.89 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 25.8% 12.3% 8.5% 5.5% 14.4% 24.8% 34.9% Logistic: 4.0% 22.3% 10.2% 7.4% 2.2% 16.5% 29.5% 17.7% Bayesian: 3.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 5.7% 11.8% 4.2% Consensus: 3.4% 17.0% 7.8% 5.4% 2.7% 12.2% 22.0% 19.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.2% 12.0% 4.9% 3.2% 1.3% 7.1% 11.5% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 42 47 56 64 69 69 66 63 52 45 41 35 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 43 52 60 65 65 62 59 48 41 37 31 26 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 44 52 57 57 54 51 40 33 29 23 18 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 42 47 47 44 41 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT