* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 11/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 62 68 73 72 70 60 49 39 35 29 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 62 68 70 68 66 57 46 34 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 53 56 56 54 48 40 31 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 8 4 5 5 13 20 26 18 20 29 36 35 47 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 1 -1 4 5 13 5 3 1 7 1 SHEAR DIR 224 223 238 259 266 223 191 219 233 255 266 267 259 265 249 246 256 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 30.1 29.6 28.1 27.9 26.8 27.4 28.2 27.5 25.9 25.1 24.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 166 169 170 167 172 163 140 136 120 126 139 130 111 103 100 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 3 3 3 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 73 73 72 69 67 62 55 52 50 50 45 37 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 18 20 21 22 18 14 10 8 5 14 850 MB ENV VOR 88 98 106 111 111 112 91 80 44 56 55 14 -29 -49 -42 -73 -79 200 MB DIV 131 146 98 62 68 64 67 68 67 47 12 -1 27 35 38 -2 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 1 3 5 2 9 15 7 2 13 26 14 19 -4 LAND (KM) 356 388 284 215 150 22 204 49 160 318 359 368 142 -5 -29 -70 -340 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 7 6 9 11 12 14 12 5 4 8 9 6 4 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 56 73 80 78 73 76 75 57 30 19 23 24 7 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 4. -3. -9. -12. -16. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 38. 43. 42. 40. 30. 19. 9. 5. -1. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 77.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 11/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 24.0% 12.0% 7.9% 4.9% 12.8% 24.4% 38.5% Logistic: 1.8% 9.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 4.1% 14.1% 26.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% 9.3% 3.1% Consensus: 2.1% 11.8% 5.4% 3.1% 1.8% 6.5% 15.9% 22.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.0% 12.0% 13.0% SDCON: 2.0% 10.4% 4.7% 2.5% 1.4% 7.7% 13.9% 17.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 11/03/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 11/03/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 46 54 62 68 70 68 66 57 46 34 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 50 58 64 66 64 62 53 42 30 27 24 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 43 51 57 59 57 55 46 35 23 20 17 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 41 47 49 47 45 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT