* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 11/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 53 61 63 64 61 58 46 41 34 29 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 37 50 51 51 52 49 46 34 28 22 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 31 37 41 39 40 40 36 31 27 25 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 12 9 7 6 16 21 26 26 18 24 27 33 51 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 2 3 8 2 -1 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 269 215 220 236 247 214 259 219 241 239 266 254 263 254 238 226 235 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.1 27.1 27.0 26.7 27.7 28.3 26.9 26.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 169 171 171 168 163 156 139 124 122 119 131 140 122 115 105 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 75 74 72 70 71 66 61 58 54 50 45 36 22 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 18 20 20 22 22 21 15 13 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 82 93 108 106 107 115 74 62 36 47 40 31 1 -10 -10 -52 -59 200 MB DIV 116 145 146 94 49 47 59 56 51 87 28 16 20 32 10 -5 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 1 2 4 4 11 20 2 7 10 -3 -26 -20 LAND (KM) 308 340 378 273 168 -15 75 -1 104 158 162 233 313 250 151 51 -40 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 12 8 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 66 76 80 79 72 69 57 24 11 9 10 15 15 11 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 7. -3. -7. -12. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 28. 36. 38. 39. 36. 33. 21. 16. 9. 4. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 77.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 11/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.64 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.97 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 24.0% 11.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 16.9% 6.0% 2.1% 0.5% 7.6% 23.0% 50.4% Bayesian: 2.5% 7.2% 2.5% 1.0% 1.1% 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% Consensus: 2.9% 16.0% 6.8% 3.5% 0.5% 3.6% 16.3% 18.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.9% 10.0% 3.9% 2.2% .2% 2.3% 8.1% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 11/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 11/03/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 37 50 51 51 52 49 46 34 28 22 17 18 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 33 46 47 47 48 45 42 30 24 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 27 40 41 41 42 39 36 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 18 31 32 32 33 30 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT