* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 11/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 52 61 66 69 66 66 59 53 46 43 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 52 61 66 60 58 58 51 45 38 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 29 35 41 40 40 38 34 30 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 6 3 7 3 1 5 10 18 25 21 26 32 40 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 4 -4 -4 -2 0 1 1 0 5 2 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 243 235 258 237 258 282 301 2 198 263 247 260 252 266 265 275 271 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.3 28.0 27.3 26.9 26.7 27.0 25.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 162 161 164 169 170 163 158 137 127 121 119 123 112 108 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 4 3 2 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 78 78 78 80 79 80 80 81 75 70 66 60 51 52 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 13 14 16 18 20 21 20 22 19 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 85 90 85 75 77 92 105 93 92 71 59 42 26 -5 -14 -44 -40 200 MB DIV 99 115 129 146 129 85 68 39 98 79 80 24 34 20 17 22 42 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 12 15 7 0 9 20 56 LAND (KM) 289 330 348 368 362 404 250 63 170 18 103 175 175 237 175 19 -322 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.2 14.1 15.5 17.5 19.7 21.9 24.1 25.8 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.2 78.7 78.3 77.9 77.5 77.2 77.4 78.2 79.3 80.8 82.3 83.6 84.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 4 6 9 12 13 13 12 9 5 6 7 12 18 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 42 47 53 70 77 73 74 60 23 11 9 8 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 43. 44. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 8. 3. -1. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 32. 41. 46. 49. 46. 46. 39. 33. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 79.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 11/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 14.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.5% 5.9% 12.7% 47.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 15.4% Consensus: 0.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 2.0% 4.3% 21.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .9% 3.5% 1.4% .4% .1% 1.5% 2.1% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 11/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 11/03/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 52 61 66 60 58 58 51 45 38 29 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 30 38 50 59 64 58 56 56 49 43 36 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 34 46 55 60 54 52 52 45 39 32 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT