* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 11/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 40 53 62 70 70 68 68 67 63 59 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 40 53 56 64 49 49 50 48 45 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 29 29 38 34 37 37 35 32 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 11 12 10 8 5 5 6 10 15 26 26 19 22 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 1 8 3 8 2 SHEAR DIR 287 229 261 262 260 291 333 11 1 271 249 258 264 252 255 263 251 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 28.9 28.7 28.2 26.6 28.1 28.3 27.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 160 164 167 170 166 151 148 140 119 137 140 127 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 76 76 78 78 80 82 79 78 78 76 72 69 64 58 53 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 12 13 14 16 19 20 23 23 22 23 23 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 76 85 84 81 71 77 106 100 100 91 66 62 52 37 5 13 1 200 MB DIV 113 116 124 140 150 114 94 68 73 63 63 60 22 27 25 42 49 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 3 6 2 2 4 0 1 7 39 52 LAND (KM) 235 265 284 311 342 372 338 149 13 55 -48 97 273 419 314 90 -133 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 13.4 14.7 16.4 18.6 20.7 22.5 23.9 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.4 78.9 78.5 78.1 77.4 77.1 77.1 77.6 78.8 80.7 83.0 85.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 6 8 10 11 12 13 12 9 8 9 13 21 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 37 39 42 57 77 74 74 62 48 33 31 36 26 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 21. 27. 32. 36. 41. 44. 47. 46. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 10. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. 33. 42. 50. 50. 48. 48. 47. 43. 39. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 79.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 11/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 9.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.4% 15.0% 42.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 4.1% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.8% 5.1% 15.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 11/02/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 11/02/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 31 40 53 56 64 49 49 50 48 45 40 32 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 29 38 51 54 62 47 47 48 46 43 38 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 34 47 50 58 43 43 44 42 39 34 26 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT