* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 11/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 33 42 55 61 70 70 71 69 68 63 58 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 33 42 55 61 65 55 57 54 53 48 43 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 35 38 37 39 38 36 33 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 8 8 5 6 11 5 3 8 13 21 28 26 27 41 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 4 2 2 -3 -2 0 -2 1 2 0 3 3 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 10 310 212 258 264 272 294 316 352 207 249 249 254 262 260 257 270 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.9 28.3 28.2 27.1 26.6 27.5 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 156 160 162 163 170 169 169 143 141 126 119 130 110 107 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 78 79 81 81 82 81 79 71 65 59 54 46 46 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 17 17 21 20 21 20 21 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 85 73 73 66 67 68 86 107 90 96 69 69 38 24 -18 -58 -38 200 MB DIV 100 123 108 117 133 134 120 80 75 68 38 46 49 -1 8 27 60 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 1 3 16 5 0 4 34 67 LAND (KM) 223 235 233 223 242 292 320 308 54 16 -35 108 146 228 258 60 -312 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.7 12.2 13.2 15.0 17.3 19.7 21.9 24.2 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.3 79.8 79.2 78.7 77.6 76.9 76.7 76.9 77.5 79.2 81.2 83.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 10 12 13 14 14 11 8 11 14 23 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 36 37 37 41 56 80 74 68 49 28 11 10 10 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 12. 21. 28. 33. 38. 42. 45. 48. 47. 48. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 5. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 22. 35. 41. 50. 50. 51. 49. 48. 43. 38. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 80.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 11/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 9.9% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3.5% 15.6% 40.3% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 3.7% Consensus: 1.1% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 5.3% 14.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 11/02/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 11/02/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 25 27 33 42 55 61 65 55 57 54 53 48 43 32 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 30 39 52 58 62 52 54 51 50 45 40 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 35 48 54 58 48 50 47 46 41 36 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT