* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 09/23/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 47 58 71 87 99 109 93 66 45 37 33 29 27 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 47 58 71 87 99 109 57 36 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 37 45 56 71 88 95 54 35 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 7 12 10 11 7 12 20 29 37 26 20 22 29 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 1 0 -1 -4 -3 0 3 2 6 -2 3 -1 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 264 309 294 246 263 260 269 186 261 233 237 236 259 268 295 289 284 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.9 30.7 30.0 27.6 26.8 26.7 26.8 19.4 18.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 170 171 172 171 173 174 136 124 122 123 78 75 99 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.0 -49.8 -48.7 -48.6 -49.0 -49.2 -49.9 -50.5 -50.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 6 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 79 81 80 75 77 75 74 68 63 40 31 35 46 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 19 22 28 35 41 48 39 25 16 15 14 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 47 57 57 66 90 92 109 138 115 115 73 21 -22 26 36 200 MB DIV 82 94 127 90 84 85 98 167 121 70 113 95 39 32 31 -7 -9 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 0 -3 -2 -1 4 28 47 89 45 0 -2 0 6 6 LAND (KM) 165 203 242 271 295 277 142 78 249 103 -217 -539 -748 -993 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.8 19.0 20.5 22.5 24.8 28.5 33.3 37.2 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.0 81.9 81.9 82.0 82.4 83.4 84.6 85.3 84.9 83.8 83.0 83.0 84.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 9 10 10 15 23 23 15 12 14 12 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 60 65 88 123 114 159 102 68 2 1 1 1 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 28. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 26. 35. 45. 33. 11. -2. -4. -6. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -0. 3. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 16. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 33. 46. 62. 74. 84. 68. 41. 20. 12. 8. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 82.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 09/23/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.96 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 32.9% 16.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 25.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 25.8% 9.8% 4.2% 1.6% 10.6% 24.7% 44.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 6.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 2.3% 8.8% Consensus: 2.7% 21.8% 9.0% 4.5% 0.6% 4.0% 17.5% 17.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 22.0% 97.0% SDCON: 2.3% 17.4% 6.5% 2.7% .3% 4.5% 19.7% 57.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 09/23/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 09/23/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 40 47 58 71 87 99 109 57 36 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 42 53 66 82 94 104 52 31 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 34 45 58 74 86 96 44 23 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 33 46 62 74 84 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT