* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 09/23/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 36 47 60 75 89 103 102 77 52 39 34 30 29 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 36 47 60 75 89 103 85 46 33 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 44 56 70 64 38 30 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 3 6 8 9 6 8 7 26 31 36 31 30 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 2 -1 -1 -3 -2 1 4 11 -2 -1 0 0 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 216 263 287 247 229 274 266 240 207 262 231 248 252 242 254 265 272 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.4 29.5 27.5 26.8 26.6 26.6 19.6 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 169 169 170 171 172 172 175 164 132 122 120 122 80 76 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.2 -49.6 -48.6 -48.8 -49.4 -49.9 -50.3 -50.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 6 5 7 7 7 6 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 80 80 77 77 78 77 73 68 52 33 33 35 41 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 14 16 19 24 30 36 44 45 31 17 13 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 53 56 66 63 80 95 88 108 108 93 78 50 2 -9 76 200 MB DIV 95 66 72 97 89 92 125 134 141 111 111 70 46 18 48 53 74 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 1 -3 2 0 6 33 80 47 9 -2 -9 -3 21 LAND (KM) 80 113 138 171 190 257 264 97 186 279 -56 -349 -545 -748 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.2 18.1 19.4 21.3 23.4 26.4 30.6 34.5 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.8 82.8 82.9 83.0 83.2 83.8 84.7 85.6 85.8 85.2 84.3 83.8 84.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 7 9 11 12 19 22 15 9 10 15 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 49 52 58 88 109 164 140 70 5 2 1 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 34. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 23. 32. 44. 46. 25. 4. -3. -3. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 27. 40. 55. 69. 83. 82. 57. 32. 19. 14. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.7 82.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 09/23/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 23.7% 9.9% 4.6% 1.8% 11.3% 28.1% 49.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 2.3% 7.6% Consensus: 1.3% 8.9% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6% 4.0% 10.1% 19.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 09/23/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 09/23/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 30 36 47 60 75 89 103 85 46 33 29 29 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 22 27 33 44 57 72 86 100 82 43 30 26 26 27 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 27 38 51 66 80 94 76 37 24 20 20 21 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT