* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 09/22/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 45 56 70 83 93 100 90 64 43 31 28 27 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 45 56 70 83 93 100 68 40 31 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 43 53 65 74 53 34 29 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 7 2 8 8 14 7 18 18 30 28 36 35 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 3 2 -1 0 -5 3 0 4 6 3 -1 4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 275 207 268 301 251 269 252 279 255 258 231 248 250 253 235 247 265 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.9 30.6 29.6 29.0 28.8 27.8 27.5 27.4 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 168 168 169 171 172 172 173 164 153 148 134 132 131 77 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 -49.8 -49.2 -48.8 -49.0 -49.4 -49.6 -50.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 5 8 6 8 7 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 80 81 82 77 78 77 76 72 64 42 33 34 38 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 14 15 19 21 27 33 39 43 40 26 16 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 42 53 58 55 61 73 81 86 106 103 111 98 130 83 49 -12 57 200 MB DIV 98 86 65 64 97 95 149 133 163 121 167 120 64 34 53 64 87 700-850 TADV 4 2 5 1 3 0 -2 4 5 18 29 63 25 19 -3 0 11 LAND (KM) 19 54 88 119 148 193 301 176 93 334 168 -140 -388 -519 -770 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.3 18.5 20.2 22.6 25.2 28.2 31.2 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.2 83.2 83.1 83.1 83.1 83.3 83.8 84.7 85.4 85.8 85.5 85.0 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 4 8 11 12 14 16 15 9 10 15 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 54 51 49 48 50 59 106 116 155 148 39 12 4 2 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 17. 22. 25. 28. 32. 35. 36. 35. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 37. 44. 38. 17. 1. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 36. 50. 63. 73. 80. 70. 44. 23. 11. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.3 83.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 09/22/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.2 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 41.7% 21.1% 10.5% 5.5% 26.3% 37.5% 65.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 4.7% 20.5% Consensus: 2.4% 16.1% 7.6% 3.8% 2.0% 9.1% 14.1% 28.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 09/22/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 09/22/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 34 45 56 70 83 93 100 68 40 31 28 29 30 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 31 42 53 67 80 90 97 65 37 28 25 26 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 25 36 47 61 74 84 91 59 31 22 19 20 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT