* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 08/02/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 52 64 69 75 82 86 89 89 85 83 80 V (KT) LAND 25 24 29 32 35 44 52 64 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 47 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 5 7 9 1 3 5 16 20 19 4 7 23 6 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -5 -6 -2 0 -3 4 -4 0 5 7 7 20 21 5 SHEAR DIR 267 298 276 247 302 243 270 213 251 258 262 210 148 122 91 108 265 SST (C) 29.7 29.2 29.8 30.5 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.6 31.5 29.9 30.3 30.7 30.5 29.4 28.6 27.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 157 168 173 173 172 171 171 170 166 169 168 168 156 143 133 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -50.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 10 8 10 7 11 8 13 7 9 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 61 64 63 66 64 63 53 49 44 45 41 43 44 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 10 11 15 16 20 25 27 28 28 28 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 4 2 -11 -1 0 27 -18 4 -30 10 47 104 79 74 51 200 MB DIV 2 -7 12 8 9 28 9 39 24 20 44 30 -8 24 0 5 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -5 -8 2 -1 6 4 3 0 4 8 23 25 28 29 LAND (KM) 15 3 8 1 6 115 95 80 -39 -104 -75 -44 -47 -64 -38 -50 -34 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 13 12 10 9 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 70 43 38 50 46 51 66 73 45 4 10 19 7 16 21 16 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 12. 15. 16. 17. 19. 22. 23. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 9. 14. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 39. 44. 50. 57. 61. 64. 64. 60. 58. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.4 74.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 08/02/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.96 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 21.5% 11.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 50.9% 35.2% 13.9% 9.6% 40.8% 61.3% 59.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 9.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.2% 3.9% Consensus: 4.0% 27.3% 16.4% 7.6% 3.2% 13.9% 27.8% 21.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 08/02/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 08/02/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 29 32 35 44 52 64 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 29 32 35 44 52 64 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 36 44 56 45 28 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 35 47 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT