* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 08/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 60 68 74 76 81 86 89 91 91 89 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 26 28 38 47 39 36 41 46 49 51 51 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 25 26 26 28 33 41 37 35 41 47 53 59 64 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 10 2 4 4 3 4 2 10 13 17 5 11 10 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -6 -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 4 2 4 -1 7 3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 263 295 246 181 20 45 43 287 281 300 308 328 18 34 28 29 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.5 30.7 31.0 30.6 30.5 30.9 31.4 29.0 30.4 29.9 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 164 162 172 172 172 172 172 171 151 170 166 159 157 150 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 60 64 64 68 66 62 56 56 54 60 61 58 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 10 9 13 13 16 17 20 23 24 26 27 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 23 9 6 20 22 -2 9 -13 10 -23 -6 5 29 5 -4 -34 -33 200 MB DIV -12 -1 -7 17 13 -2 76 35 21 15 51 17 37 44 43 9 29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -3 0 2 5 5 1 0 0 0 -4 -8 2 LAND (KM) 7 0 -42 -25 -1 -26 93 91 -41 21 186 284 402 487 570 413 225 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 22.3 24.0 26.0 28.0 29.1 29.2 28.6 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 74.4 75.9 77.3 78.5 80.6 82.1 82.7 82.0 80.7 78.9 77.7 76.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 73 68 45 52 54 51 64 66 28 31 73 57 46 47 23 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 14. 17. 19. 21. 24. 27. 30. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 17. 18. 18. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 23. 35. 43. 49. 51. 56. 61. 64. 66. 66. 64. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 72.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 08/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.86 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.97 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 30.0% 16.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 43.7% 30.2% 11.0% 5.5% 29.4% 51.7% 74.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 20.4% 5.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.7% 2.8% 8.4% Consensus: 4.2% 31.4% 17.4% 7.0% 1.9% 10.4% 26.9% 27.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 16.2% 8.7% 3.5% .9% 5.2% 13.4% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 08/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 08/02/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 26 26 26 28 38 47 39 36 41 46 49 51 51 49 43 18HR AGO 25 24 22 22 22 24 34 43 35 32 37 42 45 47 47 45 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 23 33 42 34 31 36 41 44 46 46 44 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 27 36 28 25 30 35 38 40 40 38 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT