* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 08/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 44 54 64 77 78 83 87 94 94 95 93 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 25 25 31 39 50 54 67 68 57 38 46 47 47 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 25 26 30 34 39 42 52 60 54 36 42 49 55 61 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 21 17 3 3 2 7 4 7 8 13 8 6 15 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -8 -8 -3 -1 -5 -7 0 2 -1 -3 -1 3 1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 297 251 275 297 290 270 70 14 58 326 316 317 1 17 73 57 68 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.6 30.7 30.7 30.1 31.2 30.5 30.7 31.6 31.6 29.3 30.4 30.3 29.7 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 170 164 173 172 171 171 171 171 170 170 154 170 169 162 156 153 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 10 10 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 53 56 58 57 60 61 67 65 66 61 61 55 57 53 51 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 10 11 12 17 16 17 19 23 23 25 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 10 20 15 9 26 16 20 7 3 -34 -15 -29 2 -7 12 7 -9 200 MB DIV 2 -6 5 5 10 6 36 27 47 33 48 22 39 0 46 22 42 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -3 -10 0 -1 6 5 5 0 2 0 1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 9 38 -33 -2 49 124 10 59 242 89 -35 -32 80 195 327 436 480 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.9 21.9 23.4 25.4 27.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 73.8 75.5 77.2 78.5 80.8 82.6 83.7 84.1 83.5 82.4 81.0 79.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 14 12 10 10 9 10 8 7 5 6 5 7 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 79 55 61 55 66 110 115 57 67 59 33 50 72 46 41 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 15. 19. 21. 22. 25. 29. 31. 30. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 10. 8. 9. 11. 16. 14. 16. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 29. 39. 52. 53. 58. 62. 69. 69. 70. 68. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.8 72.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 08/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.4 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 9.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 10.8% 5.0% 1.6% 0.6% 8.3% 29.4% 63.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 2.7% Consensus: 0.5% 8.6% 4.8% 2.8% 0.2% 2.8% 14.7% 22.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% 4.8% 2.9% 1.4% .1% 1.4% 7.3% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 08/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 08/01/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 25 25 31 39 50 54 67 68 57 38 46 47 47 45 42 18HR AGO 25 24 22 22 28 36 47 51 64 65 54 35 43 44 44 42 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 27 35 46 50 63 64 53 34 42 43 43 41 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 29 40 44 57 58 47 28 36 37 37 35 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT