* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972024 08/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 37 45 59 69 78 79 85 92 95 95 95 89 V (KT) LAND 20 24 25 27 25 37 45 59 64 74 74 80 88 90 91 90 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 25 23 24 29 32 38 42 51 58 65 73 81 88 91 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 12 9 20 17 3 2 5 12 7 10 10 17 17 20 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -6 -6 -3 -3 -4 -6 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 300 314 261 279 304 240 356 85 55 71 29 22 20 39 18 30 17 SST (C) 29.1 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.6 30.1 30.2 30.6 30.5 30.6 31.2 31.5 31.1 31.1 30.5 30.5 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 170 170 168 173 172 172 171 171 171 170 169 170 170 168 167 169 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 9 9 10 10 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 58 56 64 64 68 66 66 59 59 54 55 57 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 9 9 12 14 17 15 17 21 23 27 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 23 24 12 31 11 14 -9 -8 -37 -21 -32 -7 0 25 16 200 MB DIV 11 -7 -1 15 2 18 -10 22 16 48 11 23 28 1 8 28 8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 0 -7 -6 0 0 5 4 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) -29 11 15 8 -13 167 107 22 100 288 168 56 34 55 51 30 85 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.0 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.7 21.9 23.4 25.3 26.5 26.8 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.5 72.4 74.2 75.9 77.4 80.0 82.2 83.8 84.6 84.6 84.0 82.9 82.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 15 14 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 6 7 3 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 63 77 60 64 70 92 108 127 77 54 89 69 50 72 64 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 9. 17. 21. 25. 27. 30. 33. 36. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 8. 10. 14. 15. 19. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 25. 39. 49. 58. 59. 65. 72. 75. 75. 75. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.5 70.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972024 INVEST 08/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.6 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 22.4% 13.3% 5.7% 3.1% 22.1% 29.6% 72.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 1.2% 7.8% 4.5% 1.9% 1.0% 7.4% 9.9% 24.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972024 INVEST 08/01/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972024 INVEST 08/01/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 25 27 25 37 45 59 64 74 74 80 88 90 91 90 85 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 20 32 40 54 59 69 69 75 83 85 86 85 80 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 16 28 36 50 55 65 65 71 79 81 82 81 76 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT