* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL172024 11/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 34 36 36 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 34 36 36 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 28 28 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 27 27 28 35 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 6 5 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 283 286 288 295 302 307 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.5 21.4 20.9 20.9 20.0 19.2 18.3 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 87 85 85 82 78 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 -57.5 -57.7 -59.0 -60.3 -61.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.3 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 48 47 46 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 14 14 13 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 119 109 90 50 -26 -65 -134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 0 -2 -4 1 14 -27 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 7 12 17 25 20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1399 1208 1017 826 637 292 98 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 37.5 37.5 38.0 38.4 39.9 41.2 42.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 25.4 23.2 21.0 18.9 16.8 12.7 9.9 8.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 15 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -15. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. -4. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.5 25.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172024 PATTY 11/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.23 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.08 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% .7% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172024 PATTY 11/03/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 33 34 36 36 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 37 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 34 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT