* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL172024 11/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 55 51 47 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 55 51 47 40 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 56 55 53 50 45 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 27 26 25 24 22 27 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 2 0 0 4 3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 304 294 283 273 294 295 311 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.6 21.8 21.5 21.6 21.2 19.7 19.3 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 87 88 86 87 86 80 79 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.4 -55.7 -56.5 -56.8 -57.8 -58.6 -60.2 -60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.6 1.8 1.5 -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 49 50 50 49 46 47 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 18 17 15 13 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 148 143 133 127 118 92 17 -56 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 41 -18 3 1 -13 4 -2 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 13 3 2 7 12 21 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1891 1731 1571 1404 1238 856 488 211 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 37.9 37.6 37.5 37.3 37.7 39.0 40.3 42.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.2 29.3 27.4 25.4 23.5 19.2 15.1 11.5 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 16 CX,CY: 13/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -15. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 38.2 31.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172024 PATTY 11/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 2.2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172024 PATTY 11/02/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 56 55 51 47 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 53 49 45 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 46 42 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 40 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT