* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL172024 11/02/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 43 42 39 33 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 43 42 39 30 30 29 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 47 43 30 29 29 29 29 31 28 26 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 22 28 26 22 19 28 31 33 38 48 73 57 44 43 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 3 -1 -26 -14 -8 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 357 336 309 295 288 272 291 295 309 325 327 328 328 318 303 293 291 SST (C) 20.9 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.4 21.7 21.2 19.9 17.6 18.6 20.7 20.6 20.7 21.1 25.9 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 81 81 84 87 87 89 87 83 75 75 79 77 79 82 113 114 112 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.9 -55.6 -55.7 -57.1 -57.7 -58.2 -59.3 -59.9 -59.2 -58.7 -58.0 -58.9 -60.3 -60.3 -59.5 200 MB VXT (C) 4.6 3.8 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.7 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 0 2 1 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 49 49 48 49 51 51 46 40 34 33 39 45 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 19 17 15 15 13 9 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 147 134 133 126 124 118 103 25 -12 -46 -58 -52 -50 -36 -57 -38 -22 200 MB DIV 72 51 63 26 -38 9 -9 -1 -5 -38 -35 -44 11 0 -32 -52 -31 700-850 TADV 0 -3 2 8 3 7 10 12 17 6 1 9 19 14 10 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1636 1727 1866 1821 1656 1284 843 359 -26 -323 -271 -224 -181 -89 93 168 -1 LAT (DEG N) 40.3 40.0 39.5 38.9 38.2 37.2 37.2 38.5 40.0 40.2 39.3 38.8 38.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.7 33.7 32.2 30.5 28.5 24.0 18.9 13.6 8.6 4.9 3.5 3.4 2.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 14 16 18 19 21 22 18 10 5 2 4 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3. -9. -15. -18. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -16. -24. -36. -38. -39. -39. -38. -37. -36. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -22. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.3 34.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172024 PATTY 11/02/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.08 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 2.0% 1.3% 0% 0% .1% 0% 0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172024 PATTY 11/02/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 44 43 42 39 30 30 29 29 29 29 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 42 41 38 29 29 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 39 38 35 26 26 25 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 32 29 20 20 19 19 19 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT