* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162024 10/21/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 34 33 33 37 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 39 38 39 42 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 38 36 35 32 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 25 29 34 38 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 9 8 6 3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 301 297 291 291 280 256 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 28.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 170 169 164 147 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 53 55 57 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 75 83 72 84 93 104 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 12 19 38 44 57 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 7 12 12 9 2 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -32 -25 8 69 141 246 468 817 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.4 22.0 23.5 25.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.3 75.4 75.0 74.7 73.4 71.5 69.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 8 11 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 68 67 63 59 48 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -8. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -7. -7. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.2 75.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.10 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.60 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 4.8% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .3% 1.8% .9% .8% .5% .5% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 39 38 39 42 43 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 40 41 44 45 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 36 39 40 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT