* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162024 10/21/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 46 46 46 45 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 44 43 44 42 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 43 42 40 37 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 26 29 34 39 36 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 11 10 10 4 4 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 306 295 293 294 296 261 243 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 168 167 161 142 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 51 54 53 57 54 47 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 67 74 81 71 86 86 131 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -21 4 17 34 47 20 49 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 9 9 14 16 11 -12 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -12 -36 -35 3 20 170 309 538 857 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.8 21.1 22.4 24.1 25.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.1 75.3 75.3 75.4 74.5 73.1 71.3 69.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 9 11 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 69 69 67 65 56 44 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.1 74.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.70 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 10.8% 6.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.1% 2.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 46 42 44 43 44 42 41 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 45 47 46 47 45 44 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 47 48 46 45 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 40 38 37 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT